Five signal families. One cascade.

Continuous monitoring of supplier health scores, inventory levels, and lead-time variance. The first family to fire in most cascade events — a supplier allocation cut or lead-time deviation propagates toward quality before it shows in any financial report.

Supplier health degradation is the silent precursor. It does not show up in board packs. It does not appear in AR aging. It registers as a σ deviation in the upstream metrics that Augurus watches continuously.

inventory_days · lead_time_variance · supplier_health_score

State vocabulary

Key metrics

• inventory_days — Days of inventory on hand at primary and secondary suppliers
• lead_time_variance — Standard deviation of delivery lag vs. contracted lead time
• supplier_health_score — Composite score: on-time rate, allocation fill rate, financial health proxy

Tracks fill reject rates, yield rates, and rework fractions across production processes. Typically the second family to fire after a supply chain deviation, as mixed-material or substitute inputs produce dimensional variance the quality system detects before the production line slows.

Quality degradation is structurally downstream of supply chain disruption. The similarity score between SC and QS is 0.88 — the highest in the cascade — because the mechanism is direct: substitute material produces measurable output variance within days.

defect_rate · yield_rate · rework_fraction

State vocabulary

Key metrics

• defect_rate — Units rejected at inspection as a fraction of total units produced
• yield_rate — First-pass yield: units passing QC without rework, per production run
• rework_fraction — Fraction of units requiring rework before passing final inspection

Monitors throughput rates, error rates, and cycle time variance at the production line level. OI degradation is the first family visible to the portco's own operations team — by then, SC and QS have been degraded for days. When operations leadership notices a throughput problem, the cascade is already in motion.

The OI family is the bridge between the upstream operational signal and the downstream financial expression. Throughput degradation is the mechanism by which a supply chain event becomes a revenue event.

throughput_rate · error_rate · cycle_time_variance

State vocabulary

Key metrics

• throughput_rate — Units completed per shift, indexed to baseline production target
• error_rate — Process errors per 1,000 operations across automated and manual steps
• cycle_time_variance — Standard deviation of cycle time vs. designed cycle time

Projects cashflow ratios, accounts receivable aging, and runway compression from upstream operational signals — not from submitted financial data. The financial expression of an operational event is 45–90 days away from appearing in any report. FS fires the bridge demand flag and covenant proximity alert well ahead of that horizon.

Traditional portfolio monitoring begins here. Augurus treats FS as the fourth family in the cascade — a downstream expression of the operational signal, not the first signal to act on.

runway_months · operating_cashflow_ratio · ar_days

State vocabulary

Key metrics

• runway_months — Months of runway at current burn, projected from operational throughput signal
• operating_cashflow_ratio — Operating cash flow as a ratio of total operating expenditure
• ar_days — Days sales outstanding, tracking collection cycle degradation

Tracks open findings, conformance scores, and audit signal rates. Process deviations — material substitutions, specification changes, throughput anomalies — trigger compliance flags before they surface in an audit cycle. Also maps ASC 820 valuation re-mark obligations when FS crosses the alert threshold.

RC receives transfer proposals from both OI (process deviation) and FS (valuation obligation). It is simultaneously a downstream operational risk indicator and a fiduciary obligation trigger — unique among the five families in that role.

conformance_score · open_findings_count · audit_signal_rate

State vocabulary

Key metrics

• conformance_score — Composite score of process adherence to approved production specification
• open_findings_count — Active open findings from internal audits and regulatory inspections
• audit_signal_rate — Rate of audit-triggering events per 30-day rolling window